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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  November 4, 2012 10:00am-11:00am EST

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-- captions by vitac -- this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. in two days america will pick its president for the next four years. we'll take two different looks at this moment in time. first a global perspective. we've assembled experts from europe, middle east, and asia to tell us how the rest of the world sees this election. then i have a panel of distinguished historians, walter isa isaacson, sean wilentz and edmund morris to look at an eye to the past. what do past campaigns and past presidents tell us about this nail-biter? also americans might be anxious to learn tuesday's results of the chinese are even more
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anxious, perhaps, to learn who their new leaders will be, why they might have more at stake than we do. but first here's my take. whoever wins the election on tuesday, on wednesday either barack obama or mitt romney will have to start worrying about the same urgent challenge, how to stop the united states from falling over the fiscal cliff. this is, of course, the second cliff hanger that the united states has faced in two years, the first being the debt ceiling debacle. how did the world's greatest democracy start functioning so badly? maybe the next president can try to fix this broader problem. but first the fiscal cliff. unless congress act, the spending cuts and tack increases that would be triggered automatically next january would take 5.1% out of the country's gdp in one year according to the congressional bucket office. that would be one of the most severe experiments with austerity in history, larger
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than anything greece, spain, italy, or the united kingdom has tried. in fact, it's almost three times the size of britain's austerity program. and the results of those european programs have thus far been a dramatic slowdown in economic growth and a sharp spike in unemployment. once again, the rhett of the world watches to see if the united states, the center of the global economy, will actually commit economic suicide. the most puzzling aspect of our dilemmas is how manageable they are. unlike greece or spain or even britain, the united states has a fundamentally healthy economy. we have problems, but we have solutions to them. the true virtue of the simpson-bowles deficit reduction plan is that it illustrates that the united states's debt problem can be readily resolved as lop as both parties compromise. the truth is most of america's problems could be solved using some version of the simps simpson-bowles approach. imagine a bipartisan and
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independent panel that proposed comprehensive immigration reform or social security reform or tax reform. perhaps we need an inpen department agenciered by koj to generate such plans when asked. the american system is simply not working. the parties have become too polarized. institutions and traditions have been abused to create permanent gridlock and it's attempting to pretend this has always been part of the country's raucous democracy and both parties are to blame, but that's just not true. consider these facts. other the past five years, republicans in the senate have threatened or used a filibuster 385 times. that is almost double the rate of the preceding five years and much more than the historic average. now, would obama or romney be better at breaking this deadlock? each side make its arguments. obama has recently said that his re-election would break the fever and force republicans to
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the bargaining tachblt romney partisans quietly admit that the republican party will have to accept higher taxes but they claim only one of its own can take them there. is either of this criteria credible? i'm not sure. so far-on-has clearly been more willing to compromise, though he's not blameless. maybe the republican parties could accept reality and mathematics and recognize that tact revenues will have to go up to get a budget deal. but wu thing i am sure of, unless we fix our utterly dysfunctional political system, it is only a matter of time before we will face the next cliff and that next time we will fall off and crash. for more on this you can read my column in this week's "time" magazine. let's get started. in a couple of days we'll have a verdict from the american
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people, who we want to run this country. but what about the rest of the world? i have a great global panel from singapore, the dean of the school of public policy, from paris, dominique moisi, one of france's great public intellectuals. in tel a viv, he's a senior correspondent and here in new york we have rula. brill. she has both israeli and italian citizenship and she has lived and worked a as righter and journalist in both country. dominique, let me start with you. france had a great love affair with barack obama. has it continued? do the french -- are the french still overwhelmingly obama? >> definitely, but i think for different reasons. in 2008 the french would have voted for obama out of hope. in 2012, they would still vote
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in the huge majority for obama, but more out of fear of a romney victory and of a return of an america they used to dislike. >> republicans have vennially been quite popular. they've been regarded as pro-free trade, hard headed. if you thing of ronald reagan and george bush senior, clearly the elites preferred them. what's the mood right now among its elite? >> well, let me emphasize one point. both romney and obama will be acceptable to them. you know, the day that both are very careful, prak mattic souls.
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at the same time there's no doubt there's a clear preference for obama in the region. how many presidents do you know have spent their childhood in asia. how many speak the asian agents and have a sensitivity that obama has. so i guess the clear preference, too, would be for obama over romney. >> the one country, i mean if you had a survey in which they asked countries whom you'd prefer, i think all the countries were polled. one country was pakistan, which i assume thinks it will have fewer drone attacks if romney is president, which i think maybe be a mistaken assumption. one place not polled that would also be possibly true, israel. would you say in israel romney would be preferred to obama? >> it's not that simple.
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i think they're just as divided. it's absolutely true that the israeli center -- i would say large chunk of the center fear president obama and therefore would support romney not because of enthusiasm but because of the very bad relationship between the israeli right and the israeli right-winged government and the obama administration. but i think they identify with obama and would like to see an obama victory. we have several players who are waiting to see the result of the american elections and therefore the israeli center left and definitely left actually supports obama, which was not the case when obama began his tenure because at the time, really most of israel had reservations about him. i would say he became much more popular with the left and left of center while the rights were
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in almost in demonic tombs. >> you have multiple identities. you're an arab-israeli. the second, you're a news anchor in italy, so steeped in that european culture. how does it strike you? >> well, if you think of europe, definitely europe is pro obama. mine they're seeing how pragmatic he was. i mean we also took out of the way of this right-wingsed way of speaking, being tough with the world, insulting everybody no matter what, with them or with us or against us. let's remember. the world also disliked abu ghraib, guantanamo bay, invasion of attack. obama stepped in and actually embraced the arab spring. let's remember that.
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>> ari, you said you interviewed president obama. you said there was a very flattering profile. do you think that there is a -- is the support that exists within israel for him because he's a wonderful person or because you just think at the oepd testify day he'd support israel more strongly? >> first of all, he didn't share your view. the romney people did not think that the interview was flattering at all as it had some reservations about his charisma and strength of his personality. it's true what came across in the interview is something the americans saw in the debates which is that the man is no demon and, no, he's not nothing, and that was a very interesting experience to see that there was a certain exaggeration in the way he was perceiving the criticism of romney and once meeting him you could see that. i think that romney's failure isn't projecting a clear message
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and real stremgt and there was something vague just like on the american poll sichl there was something vague and not very powerful regarding his statements about the middle east and the burning issue of iran and all that. so what you have in israel is more of -- it's all about obama actually. it's not about romney. there are those who really fear obama and there are those who -- and therefore they support romney, while the others actually fear that the romney victory will strengthen the israeli right and deteriorate things in the region. >> we're going to have to ta take a break. when we come back, we're going to learn what do the chinese think of barack obama and mitt romney when we come back. [ male announcer ] citi turns 200 this year. in that time there've been some good days.
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china. people expected it to go much more smoothly than it has, and i'm sure they're very internally preoccupied. but the dust was settled. the chinese have kind of a very strange paradoxical concern about the united states is. on the one hand they don't want to have a china -- america that's too strong, too aggressive, pushing china in a specific region the way it could as china has seen in other places. at the same time, the chinese also realize that an american that is weakened too much is also bad for them because, i mean, the chinese at the end of the day want a strong global economy and they want a lead their will bring america together and strengthen it again. so you have a strong america leading a strong global economy. so no matter who comes in, whether it's obama or romney -- in the case of romney, it will
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take one to two years for the dust to settle down. but they'll come back and eventually stabilize because it's in the interest of both sides to keep a stable relationship. >> dominique, when yo luke at the european crisis, what i'm struck at is this may be the mifrt major international crisis where united states is really something of a bystander. it's not really involved much. it's involved on the margins. is this part of the world? do europeans like this? do they wish the united states were more involved or are they thinking, you know what, we have the mechanisms to handle this and we're glad the obama administration is staying out? >> well, i think the europeans are witnessing the change, and it's not a question or liking it or disliking it. it's a reall. and from the standpoint, i think the europeans a bit like the
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chinese would say obama or romney, by the end of the day, it may not make such a big difference either on foreign policy or even in economic policy. but by the end of the day, the europeans support obama, i would say not because of his performance, not because they think he will do something very different but because intuitively in terms of emotion and values, they feel much closer to him. >> rula, if you put your italian hat on, does it matter so much? because what i'm struck by when reading the italian press or watching the reports from italy, mario monti, the new prime minister is being much lauded for his very good relationship with angela merkel, the chancellor of germany. the fact that he has a good relationship with barack obama,
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it's at this point somewhat irrelevant because the crucial figure that italy has to get on right now is germany, not the united states. is that the new europe? >> that's a little bit, yes. there's a little -- a lot, you know. germany has become a very powerful player. italy has $2.5 trillion in debt and they need angela merkel to support them. they can never bail them out, but in a way they can slow the repayment of the debt or help them in some kind of way, but i think also they're looking toward the federal reserve, what ben bernanke has been doing in the last few years and how he actually saved the economy in the united states while europe was still fumbling what to do and now they're following the same formula, same recipe that ben bernanke set up to bring america back. >> finally, ari shavit, let me
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ask you. president obama gave an interview to a senior decision-maker but it was widely reported to be barack in which he mused about an obama presidency. he said, look, it may be more difficult for an obama presidency to attack iran militarily because any new president is going to have to tame some time before he can take such a major decision. he's going to have to gets he new cabinet officials ready. it may not be a good thing for israel if the clock really is ticking. do you share that view? >> what we have here -- i think in the last few years -- is a completely dysfunctional relationship between president obama and benjamin netanyahu.
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i think prime minister netanyahu looked at obama as a great ally who beltred it in 1967. both men cannot stand each other and they failed, failed in doing anything on the palestinian issue and they they failed partially on the other issue. should romney be elected, he will have less experience. we don't know how resolved he will have, and it will take him a long time to train the international legitimacy and american legitimacy to act forcefully against iran. therefore, should obama want to act assertively on iran, he'll be in a much better position, but the question is, which is often in israel, will the new obama administration have that sort of resolve. >> thank you, folks.
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kishore, ari, rula, and dominique. thank you very much for joining us. up next, "what in the world." why why the real story next week isn't in washington. it's in beijing. we'll be right back. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about your old 401(k). tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you know, the one that's been lying around. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 rollover your old 401(k) to a schwab ira, and we'll help you tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 find new ways to make your money work harder. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so if you're ready to teach your old 401(k) some new tricks... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 talk to chuck. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 rollover your old 401(k) tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to a schwab ira tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and you can receive up to $600. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 see tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 for terms and conditions. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call, click or visit tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to open an account today. good boy.
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now for our "what in the world" segment. the most intriguing story next week might play out not in washington but thousands of miles away in beijing. why? well, consider this. we don't know who the next occupant of the white house will be but whoever it is, we have a pretty good estimate of his policies. on the other hand in china, we almost certainly know the identity of the next top leader. what we have no clue about is where he wants to take china.
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♪ >> starting thursday beijing will pick a new generation of rulers, hundreds of new faces. until a few weeks ago, even the date of this transition was a secret. but come november 8th. a new set of leaders will take on backlog of problems. how these issues are dealt with will set the tone not just for china's 1.3 billion people but for the entire world. let's look at those problems under three basic categories, economics, policies, and economic policy. we know that china's growth rate is slowing. in part that's because it's now a middle income company and it can't grow at 10% forever. it's not just the pace but the nature of the economy that's changing however. we tend to think of china's growth driven by exports and state investments but look at this. in blue, exports have steadily declined since 2005 as a share of growth in gdp.
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on the other hand, domestic consumption in red has risen steadily, accounts for more than half of china's overall growth. that means the internal chinese economy needs to be reformed and opened up to make it more productive. that's plit lick i difficult. wu big policy that cries out for reform is the one-child rule. china is getting old. in 1980, the median age was 22. now it's 35. by 2050, it will rise to 50. china's next leader will face not just an ageing population but one that is alps completely imbalanced by jen dur. among children under 15, there are 117 boys for every 100 girls. is a social tinder box. another political development that struck me this year is the increasingly public display of anger. it is said there are more than 100 protests in china every day. many of these are demonstrations
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against the country's environmental pollution, but there's also an undercurrent of anger over what is seen as an increasingly corrupt ruling class. just look at the two biggest stories out of china this year. former governor was a rising star one year ago. today he's under criminal investigation for alleged corruption. and just a few days ago "the new york times" ran a story detailing how the premier's family is worth $3 billion. no matter ho thaw they try to hide or spin these stories, there's a sense of public outrage and it will need to be addressed. china has essentially put all big decisions on hold until this transition. maybe next week it will begin. finally, foreign policy challenges. we've witnessed an assertive and sometimes even belligerent china in the last two years.
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look at the ongoing territorial dispute not only with japan but similar ones throughout the pacific. will that change? how will beijing control a rise in nationalist pride and power? how will it ensure that the united states and china don't drift toward confrontation? that's challenge for leaders in beijing and also in washington. we'll be right back. up next, how the past informs the present and the future. a great panel of american historians on the election. pid r visibly reduces fine lines and wrinkles in just one week. why wait if you don't have to. neutrogena®. who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%. both are used to treat men with low testosterone. androgel 1.62% is from the makers of the number one prescribed testosterone replacement therapy.
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and you could pay as little as ten dollars a month for androgel 1.62%. what are you waiting for? this is big news. drift toward confrontation? so what do you think? basic.
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at meineke i have options... like oil changes starting at $19.95. my money. my choice. my meineke. i'm candy crowley in washington with a check of your headlines. florida's democratic party has filed federal lawsuit to extend early voting hours. the lawsuit argues that inadequate pouling facilities in miami-dade, broward, and palm beach counties led to some lines in some cases between six and seven hours long. over a million votes have already been cast in the bellwether state of ohio. the secretary of state says an senn tee voting and early in-person voting have gone smoothly so far this year. absentee voting has gone on track to sur praise that in 2008. boehner has been on a three-day bus tour in his home
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state. the house speaker says he's relying on long-time republicans in southwest ohio where he's from to deliver the state's 18 electoral votes for mitt romney. new jersey voters displaced by superstorm sandy will be able to cast their votes by i'm. the state is also allowing residents to vote at their county clerk's office. the deadline for ballots is still 8:00 p.m. tuesday. and those are your headlines. "reliable sources" is at the top of the hour. now back to "fareed zakaria gps." sometimes the best way to think about big events, elections, crises, wars, is to step back and learn what we can from the past. that's why i bruit together three of my favorite historians do just that and to help us figure out how the past can inform the present in this election. my guests are edmund morris. he has a new book out called
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"this living hand." sean wilentz also has a book out about ronald reagan and his times and many others including bob dylan and his times, a professor at princeton university and walter isaacson, the author of biographies of everything from henry kissinger to steve jobs. you were appointed the vice chairman of the louisiana recovery authority and the job was to handle funds that were being dispersed by the federal government. in watching the rebuilding of new orleans and this whole process, what do you think that you learned that applies to what's going on now in new york and new jersey? >> three things. first of all, leadership matters. if you look at what's happening in new york and new jersey now organization view great leaders, michael bloomberg, deputy mayer
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bob steele, cuomo, governor chris christie. back then there wasn't that strong of a leadership. ray nagin was the mayor, sometimet no to be found. so i saw the importance of people who take charge and say i'm going to run into this crisis and i'm going to help solve it. secondly, it reminded us that we're all in the same boat together. this election is somewhat about the age-old tension between, all right, we're all individual freedom, you know, have our own liberty and we're responsible for ourselves or we're all in the same boat and we're responsible, too, for each other. and it reminds you when you have a hurricane, that no matter how successful you are, you're also part of a community and you're responsibility for the community. thirdly, it reminded me of the importance of innovation. after the storm in new orleans, for example, we reinvented the school system instead of just replicating the school system. that's now had double digits, score gains for the past three years. so as i think rahm emanuel, to
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pair a fwraz him, never let a good hurricane go to waste. >> sean, taking up that second point, do you think that the fact of this hurricane will resonate more strongly to help president obama in the election because it does suggest, you know, that you need government. >> sure. >> that it acts and protects communities and things like that. >> it helps with the whole way of thinking about the government and what it can do for people and fema, for example. republicans have not been in favor of making fema robust. the democrats have. natural disasters actually hurt two republican presidents very badly. both george h.w. bush with hurricane andrew and katrina, of course. so following up on rahm emanuel, he might have thought hurricanes generally play better for democrats in that they require that kind of federal aid. you cannot -- no state, no city can do this on this its own and that was what was poignant with governor christie and president
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obama. yeah, i think that's true. >> edmund, this was a case of leadership that is perhaps a little bit more like theodore roosevelt than ronald reagan in the sense whether it's krischri or obama, a take-charge attitude. >> appearance matters. they were masters of action on camera. and what the american people relate to, particularly during an election season, is the president in action. and here we've -- if i were running for re-election to the presidency, i would pray for an emergency like this, because we look to our presidents to dram a tiez and to make sense of natural ka as the trophies. theodore roosevelt had the san francisco earthquake to deal with which he greatly enjoyed and reagan had several great theatrical moments, the assassination attempt. >> the challenger.
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>> yeah. >> so he was very good at articulating that. we want to see and hear our presidents articulating the way we feel. so i should think the president right now is a very happy man. >> do you think ronald reagan could get that republican nomination today? you know, on so many issues he would be considered somewhat moderate. he was in favor of gun control for example. >> reagan was running for presidency for the first time in the late 1960s. it was hampered with the fact that he was associated with extreme right wing causes. and for those who supported him, he said, well, i welcome their support. just because they support me, i don't support them necessarily. reagan had the gift of putting over hard provocative policy statements with a sweetness and personal presentation and niceness about him that somehow die fused the hardness of these
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positions. if he had become president when he first ran in 1976, i think the world would have been a very dangerous place, because this nice guy saying things and intending to do things to the soviet union, which probably would have brought on real international stress. history came to our rescue and delayed reagan's election until later time when he became more diplomatic. >> we're going to have to take a break. when we qom back, we're going to talk with our panel about what this cliff hanger election remind them up and who the candidate reese mind them of when we come back. it's a good day for politics. which way do you lean politically? conservative. republican. well, using the bing news selector you can find news from whichever way you lean. (together) social on this side, financial. which party is currently predicted to win a majority in the senate? the republicans?
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would you make a bet on that? no. are you chicken?
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we are back with walter isaacson, sean will ents, and edmund morris, our superstar history panel. sean will ents, people look at this and say the race is tied. there are some indications that obama is ahead in the state-by-state polls so he could
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win the electoral collegend but could lose the popular vote. that happened, of course, in 2000. what are the historic parallels that you think of when you look at this election? >> in some ways there are no parallels when you look at the structured politics. but we're talking about tight elections, there have been any number of them, 1800, 1824, neither of the presidential candidates got in the majority of the electoral college so it was sent to the house of representatives. 1960, i remember being a little kid staying up very, very late wondering who was going to win the election, kennedy or nixon. it came down in the end with illinois but it was a real cliff hanger. >> does it surprise people when it's a close election? >> sometimes. sometimes it tells you the opposite. perhaps in 2000, thing that 50/50 split was exactly 50/50 across the country. even the supreme court justices of florida and the united states
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put together, we're 50/50 divided between gore and bush. and what that election proved is we didn't want neither of them. i was a negative election. >> i think what tends to happen is when you have a split government between, you know, the house, the senate, and the white house and different parties and in some ways, that's served well over the years, that there has to be a coming to the center and some compromise. i think historically we've done that the past four or five years have not been the best example of people saying, all right, we have a divided government, let's put together coalitions the way lyndon johnson could when he had really four parties, southern democrats, northern democrats, liberal republicans, conservative republicans and you could put together the coalitions. that's what's served the country well is the ability to put toektd coalitions. >> is it fair to they, yes, johnson was able to wheel and
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deal massively, but he did have democratic majorities in both the house and the senate? >> yeah, but that was -- i mean every president has different leadership styles. obviously we've all read robert kara's fourth vacuum now and the ability of lyndon johnson just to keep pulling people together and telling people, everett dirksen, because you did need some republican support when you were going up against richard russ whole was your democratic senator from the south to say to dirksen, i need your help on the bill and finally dirksen releapts and then you say, but i need you to co-sponsor the bill and your name is going to come first and, you know, just doing that was a leadership style that johnson had, but john kennedy did not have. every president brings a certain aura to the leadership style, and in any given moment, you say, actually it would be nice if we could put l pull a little
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bit of that dna from that president and put it in the d nah ass of our current leaders in both the senate and white house. >> howard bake e told me me a great story about lbj and dirksen. he said when he was in an intern in dirksen's office, he heard him yelling into the phone, no, goddamnit, mr. president, you're not getting him. he said stick around, you're going to see something. and half an hour later, the door of dirksen's office flew open and in came two beagle hounds followed by the president of the united states with a bottle of bourbon and he slammed the bottle down on dirksen's desk and said, listen, you sonofaabithch, we're going to get this settled tournament. >> you were not is a supporter of obama during the primaries. you arguing passionately.
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what do you think about him now historically? >> barack obama, he's done a pretty good job as president, i think. he got a historic health care bill through. no democratic president since fdr or senator bog wagner right through truman, right through clinton, put it back on the agenda. obama got it done. it's extraordinary. i think it's important. i think he -- politically he's run into problems and i'm not sure he hanseled the job as a politician as well as others might have, as well as lyndon johnson certainly would have, but i give him good grades. yeah, i'm not surprised. i think that hillary clinton would have done an even better job, but i think he's done fine. >> what about you? >> yeah, i think history will be far kinder to a first-time president obama than a political divisive discussion that we're having right now, you know, you'll look back and say, okay, we got our health care, we got out of the financial cliff we're about to go over and, you know, a horrible financial situation,
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the economy is now growing again, we handled difficult foreign policy situations with a big of tenacity and wisdom. you know, obama, various things happen. so i think history will look back on a pretty successful -- very successful first term and it's somewhat surprising that our political system right now sort of doesn't allow that narrative to emerge because we're so contentious these days. >> what do you think of that, edmund? >> i've been disappointed since the cathartic marvelous night he was elected. the most excitement i experienced as an immigrant since the house impeachment of richard nixon. but since then i've found him to become less magical, less interesting. he hasn't made a speech compared to all the comparisons that he unleashed as candidate and i
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would be less impressed with him playing golf with bangers. >> let me ask you. who do you think he reminds you of? >> he seems to be an ian novel which is periodic will i rewritten. i think behind the synthetic image which keeps changing i suspect there's a really formidable and interesting man with a big heart but it keeps being hidden by these images that his team wanted him to protect. where the real man is, i don't now. >> big men, no backbone. he's moved way to the right to get the nomination. he'll going have a lot of problems governing if he gets re-elected. if he gorges the way he's talking now, he's have a lot of them angered. if he governs the way the party wants to hrks he'll have problems with the country because the country does not want a tea party government. that's pretty clear. >> thank you walter i zalk son, sean wilentz and edmund morris. when we come back, what happens
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as we look ahead to tuesday's election, here's our question of the week. there have been 18 republican presidents of the united states. how many democratic presidents have there been? is it a, 12, b, 15, c, 18, or d, 26? stay tuned, and we'll tell you the correct answer. also, if you ever miss a show, go to you can get the audio podcast for free or you can buy the video version. this week's book of the week is "iron curtain" by past gbs
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guest. this book looks at how communism spread across eastern europe in the wake of world war ii. we tend to study how countries become democratic. this brilliant book is about the opposite, how eastern europe became totalitarian. and now for the last look. ethiopia has one of the highest illiteracy rates in the world. the village here is no exception. nobody there can read or rigwri. that's why i was astonished when i saw what the "one laptop per child" program did there. they dropped them preloaded in the individual of wonchi with no instructions. within four minutes, one boy had found the on/off switch, an unknown enentity in these parts. he then taught the others. within a few days they were each using about 50 apps each per day. they were learning to write
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letters. and within a month, they were learning to speak them too. not just the big ones. but the little ones too. >> a, b, c, d, e, f, g -- >> all together now -- >> a, b, c, d, e, f, g -- >> amazing. these children had barely ever seen any letters before, let alone the roman alphabet. now they had discovered their way to learning the alphabet song. >> w, x, y, and z. >> it's a sign of great hope for the 100 million children around the world who will never go to school. the correct answer to our gps challenge question was "b." there have been 15 democratic presidents of the united states. actually 16 separate democratic presidencies. that's
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